Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe521…85ed crypto 1298 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$912 (-15%) realized −$912 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%596W / 702L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$25
14 days+$52
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$178
sports 11% −$11
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +167.3% +141.8% 40% 40% -8.4%
≤30d 981 +21.9% +10.3% 42% 41% -16.0%
≤90d 1298 +17.9% +6.7% 46% 40% -12.8%
all 1298 +17.9% +6.7% 46% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.7% 40% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.5% 37% -21.1%
15% -12.9% 36% -28.8%
20% -21.4% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$912
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses596 / 702
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1298 / 1298
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1298 Trades
no open positions (375 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$9 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.71 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records