Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe51c…35ad crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-11%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate84%46W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 15% -3.5%
≤30d 13 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 15% -3.5%
≤90d 23 -2.6% -11.8% 83% 13% -15.2%
all 55 +4.1% -5.8% 84% 42% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 42% -19.6%
10% -14.8% 22% -27.3%
15% -23.1% 9% -34.3%
20% -30.6% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses46 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 28 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 28 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 28 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 28 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 28 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 14 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 14 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 12 $14 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 11 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 11 $33 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 11 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 11 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 11 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 11 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 11 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 11 $12 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 11 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 11 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 09 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $24 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $23 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $23 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $21 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $19 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records