Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe51b…661f politics 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$906 (-0%) realized −$908 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,276per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$28
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$84
other 37% +$8
sports 16% −$835
world 2% −$12
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +9.3% -1.1% 16% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 94 -4.9% -14.0% 9% 4% -10.7%
all 148 +6.4% -3.7% 20% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 16% -10.0%
10% -12.9% 15% -18.6%
15% -21.3% 14% -26.4%
20% -29.1% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,926) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$908
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,276
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $2,855 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $542 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,922 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,541 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,943 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,926 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,243 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $836 −$1 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,652 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $839 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $87 +$69 +79%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,640 −$3 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $266 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $230 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $40 +$59 +146%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $58 +$30 +52%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $309 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,244 −$1,244 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2,398 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $4,006 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $4,042 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 26 $1,365 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,920 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,727 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $3,832 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $3,747 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $4,429 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $723 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $724 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $614 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $615 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $541 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $542 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $302 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $303 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $726 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $728 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $729 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $726 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $727 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $730 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $731 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $300 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $948 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $949 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.65 · official $301.65 (match) · 525 history records