Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe51b…3cad crypto 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22,828 (+13%) realized +$22,828 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%426W / 95L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day139.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -11.2% -19.7% 61% 13% -21.3%
≤30d 521 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 13% -12.7%
≤90d 521 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 13% -12.7%
all 521 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 13% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 13% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 7% -21.1%
15% -24.7% 5% -28.7%
20% -32.1% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$179 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$22,828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses426 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)521 / 475
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$356
Trades / day139.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 521 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +9900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $229 −$229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $868 −$868 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $471 −$942 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$394 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $345 −$345 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$26 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $545 −$545 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $441 −$441 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $956 −$956 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $733 −$733 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,259 +$36 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $78 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $34 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $42 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.71 · official $100.00 (match) · 3500 history records