Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe518…ed4c other 22 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-44%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
sports 47% −$13
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 17% -65.1%
≤30d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 17% -65.1%
≤90d 12 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 17% -65.1%
all 12 -53.2% -57.6% 17% 17% -65.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.6% 17% -65.1%
10% -61.7% 17% -68.5%
15% -65.4% 17% -71.5%
20% -68.8% 8% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)12 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $1 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 72¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $2 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $2 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $2 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $2 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $6 40h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.07 · official $15.02 (match) · 33 history records