trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | No | 32¢ | 26¢ | $13 | $11 | −$3 (-19%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian | Jun 14 | $14 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$5 | -80% |
| Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian | Jun 14 | $6 | −$2 | -38% |
| Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | Jun 14 | $3 | −$1 | -22% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3 | −$1 | -19% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$3 | -28% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round | Jun 14 | $17 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 14 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Jun 14 | $19 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | Jun 14 | $13 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | May 21 | $168 | −$49 | -29% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | May 20 | $128 | +$2 | +1% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19? | Mar 19 | $28 | −$8 | -29% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on March 22? | Mar 19 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19? | Mar 19 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 | Mar 18 | $44 | −$14 | -32% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 17? | Mar 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 17? | Mar 17 | $57 | −$9 | -16% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Mar 08 | $40 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Mar 08 | $86 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 01 | $146 | −$4 | -3% |
| Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 01 | $54 | −$1 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 9% | 0% | -25.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -19.4% | -27.1% | 14% | 0% | -24.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -21.6% | -29.1% | 15% | 5% | -25.3% |
| all | 25 | -17.8% | -25.6% | 12% | 4% | -20.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.6% | 4% | -20.3% |
| 10% | -32.7% | 0% | -28.0% |
| 15% | -39.2% | 0% | -34.9% |
| 20% | -45.2% | 0% | -41.3% |