Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe517…25d7 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 32% −$4
politics 21% +$3
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 60% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 60% 20% -9.3%
all 28 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage270d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $70 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $25 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $41 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $15 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $27 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $24 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $70 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $71 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $33 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $38 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $60 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $1 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $71 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $19 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $52 38h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $3 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 14d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 59¢ $26 90d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 52¢ $1 215d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 52¢ $22 215d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 52¢ $1 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.54 · official $70.54 (match) · 104 history records