Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E5 0xe515…c474 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23 (+15%) realized +$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR92%break-even

Win rate92%11W / 1L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$4

7 days+$7

14 days+$7

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +92%

net ROI/market (all)+11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+15.9%	+4.9%	100%	100%	+5.1%
≤30d	3	+19.7%	+8.3%	100%	100%	+7.0%
≤90d	12	+22.9%	+11.2%	92%	92%	+6.4%
all	12	+22.9%	+11.2%	92%	92%	+6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.2%	92%	+6.4%
10%	+0.5%	67%	-3.8%
15%	-9.2%	25%	-13.1%
20%	-18.1%	8%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +38% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses11 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage70d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$22	+$4	+20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima	May 31	$10	+$3	+27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean	May 07	$10	+$5	+48%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03?	May 04	$5	+$5	+105%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev	May 03	$10	+$2	+18%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?	May 02	$10	−$10	-100%
Thunder vs. Suns	Apr 28	$10	+$3	+27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	Apr 25	$5	+$1	+24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?	Apr 22	$10	+$2	+23%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19?	Apr 20	$6	+$3	+46%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17?	Apr 19	$5	+$1	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$22	35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	8d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima	BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime	78¢	$10	26d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean	SELL Jasmine Paolini	100¢	$15	49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean	BUY Jasmine Paolini	67¢	$10	49d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	53d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?	BUY Yes	82¢	$10	54d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Jannik Sinner	84¢	$10	54d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	61d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	BUY Yes	80¢	$5	61d
Thunder vs. Suns	BUY Thunder	78¢	$10	61d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	65d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	67d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17?	BUY Yes	80¢	$5	70d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.82 · official $29.82 (match) · 24 history records