Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe514…d627 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
sports 37% −$6
other 12% −$1
politics 8% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 54 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage430d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 +$2 +6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $38 −$10 -26%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $42 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $140 +$2 +1%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 18 $21 $0 -2%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 18 $166 −$10 -6%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on May 9? May 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 30 $2 $0 -15%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 28 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records