Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe514…2c62
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$143 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$127 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$558
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses49 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage521d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$244
7 days+$240
14 days+$240
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $155 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $111 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 +$201 +414%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $95 +$105 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $119 +$81 +67%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $629 −$81 -13%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $176 −$1 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $53 −$2 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 20 $215 +$26 +12%
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parlia Apr 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 20 $90 −$52 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Kigali: Marco Cecchinato vs Aziz Ouakaa Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 18 $46 +$4 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $1 $0 -48%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 09 $180 +$20 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 08 $99 +$1 +1%
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg Mar 08 $32 +$68 +212%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $197 −$1 -0%
Human moon landing in 2026? Mar 01 $256 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $56 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 20 $35 +$5 +15%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Feb 05 $0 $0 -70%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 04 $59 +$4 +7%
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026? Feb 04 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 04 $91 +$5 +6%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jan 30 $94 +$6 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 11 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31? Sep 30 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $89 +$6 +6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23? Aug 27 $296 +$4 +2%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Aug 27 $378 +$14 +4%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Aug 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI buy X before July? Aug 07 $134 +$1 +1%
New Pope before July? May 13 $108 +$69 +64%
New Pope in 2025? May 13 $625 +$20 +3%
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? May 13 $194 +$6 +3%
Trump's face on the $250 bill before July? Mar 10 $355 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $286 +$14 +5%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 03 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Putin meet with Trump in February? Mar 03 $278 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$234
other 30% +$169
politics 17% +$20
tech 10% +$92
sports 4% +$66
culture 2% +$5
crypto 2% +$2
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $113 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $158 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $49 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 23h
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $197 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $95 42h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $119 42h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $549 43h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $27 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 2d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $174 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 2d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 2d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $71 2d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $43 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $50 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +67.5% +51.5% 43% 43% +8.8%
≤30d 7 +67.5% +51.5% 43% 43% +8.8%
≤90d 14 +9.8% -0.7% 43% 29% +1.6%
all 74 +2.1% -7.6% 66% 23% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 23% -8.8%
10% -16.5% 9% -17.5%
15% -24.5% 8% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.50 · official $557.50 (match) · 400 history records