Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe50d…4bd5
sports · 82 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)71 / 82
History coverage536d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 68¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 50¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 34¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+170%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Casper Ruud 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2026-05-11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Team Yandex 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? No 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Aurora 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Timberwolves 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +22%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$5 +83%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $3 +$12 +344%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $6 +$2 +35%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$2 +40%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $9 +$32 +367%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $6 +$3 +61%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $2 +$8 +354%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Will FK Rubin Kazan win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Apr 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Feb 04 $1 $0 +24%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 29 named typhoons occur in the Northwest Pacific in 2025? Dec 02 $2 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$1
politics 24% −$7
other 12% −$2
world 5% −$1
finance 1% −$10
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 27m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 30h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 34h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $3 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 36h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.2% -6.6% 57% 37% -12.1%
≤30d 40 +13.8% +2.9% 55% 40% +1.7%
≤90d 44 +12.3% +1.6% 55% 41% -9.4%
all 71 -6.4% -15.3% 41% 28% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 28% -10.2%
10% -23.4% 24% -18.8%
15% -30.8% 21% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 15% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.40 · official $45.40 (match) · 254 history records