Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 6 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$30
14 days+$2,116
30 days+$3,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $7,311 $7,354 +$42 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $3,003 $3,707 +$704 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 66¢ $440 $460 +$20 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $140 $167 +$27 (+19%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 06 $226 +$10 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $473 +$102 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $236 −$10 -4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $225 +$11 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,321 +$1,983 +46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $167 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $70 +$12 +18%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 23 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? May 23 $52 −$7 -14%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $103 −$10 -10%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? May 23 $202 −$11 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $455 −$23 -5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 23 $56 +$11 +20%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 23 $188 +$8 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $269 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 23 $406 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $463 +$307 +66%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $223 −$23 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $2,358 +$339 +14%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 19 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 19 $30 −$23 -76%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $253 +$39 +15%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 18 $250 +$3 +1%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 18 $808 −$125 -15%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $59 −$10 -16%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 15 $1,181 −$413 -35%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $4,656 +$1,294 +28%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $118 +$33 +28%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 12 $257 −$257 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 12 $126 −$58 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $320 +$80 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +9%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $868 −$20 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 07 $101 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 07 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 07 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 07 $20 +$5 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 07 $96 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $135 +$24 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $358 −$131 -37%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $540 −$518 -96%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 04 $102 +$24 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$5,453
politics 21% +$804
other 4% −$410
tech 2% +$286
culture 2% +$257
sports 1% +$24
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $3 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $305 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $247 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $32 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $13 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $13 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $135 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $25 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $57 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $43 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $495 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $236 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $100 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $359 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $226 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $226 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $236 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 82¢ $235 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $225 10d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 10d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 10d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.3% +12.5% 67% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 31 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 29% +8.0%
≤90d 91 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 35% +4.0%
all 97 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 36% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 36% +4.5%
10% -21.7% 27% -5.5%
15% -29.3% 15% -14.7%
20% -36.2% 10% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,758.50 · official $11,758.50 (match) · 534 history records