Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe508…b5ef sports 27 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-6%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.9% -12.1% 64% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 27 -2.0% -11.4% 70% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 27 -2.0% -11.4% 70% 0% -15.5%
all 27 -2.0% -11.4% 70% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 0% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -23.6%
15% -27.6% 0% -31.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $413 −$276 -67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $250 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 18 $6 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $150 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $142 +$5 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $279 +$11 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $295 +$8 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $58 +$1 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $148 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $125 +$2 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$1 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $82 +$1 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $119 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN $8 3d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL 1WIN 55¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 55¢ $137 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 55¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 55¢ $103 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL 1WIN 53¢ $132 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 26¢ $65 4d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 52¢ $130 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 74¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 74¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $67 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $182 4d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL 9z 33¢ $6 4d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY 9z 32¢ $2 4d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY 9z 32¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 32¢ $80 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 31¢ $78 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 81¢ $128 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 81¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 81¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 81¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 81¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 60¢ $150 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $150 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 60¢ $148 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $150 5d
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner SELL Phantom 35¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner SELL Phantom 35¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner SELL Phantom 35¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records