Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe502…e3b0 crypto 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,581 (-37%) realized −$1,581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate73%153W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$239
14 days−$229
30 days−$1,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,644
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -8.9% -17.6% 75% 75% -46.8%
≤30d 209 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 68% -45.3%
≤90d 209 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 68% -45.3%
all 209 -8.2% -16.9% 73% 68% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 68% -45.3%
10% -24.9% 39% -50.5%
15% -32.1% 8% -55.3%
20% -38.8% 2% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$34 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses153 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage26d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $214 −$211 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records