Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe500…c645 politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$11
other 24% −$4
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 88 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage634d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC North? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will TREMP reach $1b first? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nice win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Dec 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Diogo Jota be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lucie Castets be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $52 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $52 39d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 40d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 69d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 69d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 84d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 84d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $54 91d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $54 99d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $54 99d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $54 101d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $54 101d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $54 103d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $54 104d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 108d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 109d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $54 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $54 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records