Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4ff…85ba other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (2924 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized +$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day2923.7pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$54
politics 47% −$11
world 5% +$39
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2924 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.3% -4.7% 19% 6% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +5.3% -4.7% 19% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 32 +5.3% -4.7% 19% 6% -9.4%
all 32 +5.3% -4.7% 19% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2923.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -13.8% 6% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 6% -25.9%
20% -29.8% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$515) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
47.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×20.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day2923.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $481 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $20,060 −$10 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $385 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $393 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $751 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $346 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $515 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$20 +38%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,069 +$18 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,427 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $865 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12,578 −$7 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $901 +$19 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $367 +$19 +5%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +125%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 8m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 8m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 8m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 9m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.10 · official $240.10 (match) · 3500 history records