Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4f9…9ab0
weather · 700 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$166 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$186 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$354
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses626 / 58
Open positions16
Markets (closed)684 / 700
History coverage103d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 684 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$159
14 days−$229
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $19 $28 +$8 (+43%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 75¢ 95¢ $22 $27 +$6 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 65¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $93 +$13 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 09 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 6? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 6? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 09 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 09 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 09 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 09 $4 +$7 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 09 $7 +$4 +51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$165
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 98¢ $9 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 96¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 57¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 5h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 34¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -9.1% -17.8% 80% 14% -23.7%
≤30d 207 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 8% -12.6%
≤90d 613 +2.0% -7.7% 92% 9% -10.4%
all 684 +1.2% -8.5% 92% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -10.2%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.8%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.12 · official $354.12 (match) · 2656 history records