Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4f8…4de0
sports · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41,376 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41,882 · open +$506
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,696
7 days−$41,882
14 days−$41,882
30 days−$41,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 48¢ $22,810 $23,134 +$324 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 39¢ 40¢ $4,960 $5,143 +$183 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,784 −$2,784 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35,714 −$35,714 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $6,599 −$6,599 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $14,133 +$9,968 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5,107 +$4,395 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $801 +$1,062 +133%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12,211 +$9,991 +82%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $11,465 −$11,465 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $3,121 +$3,029 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,167 −$5,167 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7,445 +$2,835 +38%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 09 $4,944 −$4,944 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,478 −$4,478 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7,210 −$7,210 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $3,592 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3,104 +$5,355 +172%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,422 +$4,422 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$5,662
other 22% −$35,714
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $308 23m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1,897 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $5 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 42% -37.2%
≤30d 19 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 42% -37.2%
≤90d 19 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 42% -37.2%
all 19 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 42% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover94.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 42% -37.2%
10% -27.7% 42% -43.2%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 42% -48.7%
20% -41.1% 37% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,285.20 · official $28,285.20 (match) · 485 history records