Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4f5…9663
politics · 77 markets active 105d ago
0.0score
−$126,684 -95%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$126,684 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$126,684
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
Avg bet$1,731
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $509 $0 −$509 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $253 $0 −$253 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $863 $0 −$863 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $14,471 $0 −$14,471 (-100%)
Iran Nuke in 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $896 $0 −$896 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $389 $0 −$389 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $354 $0 −$354 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1,710 $0 −$1,710 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $377 $0 −$377 (-100%)
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Nuclear weapon detonation before October? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran before September? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1,612 $0 −$1,612 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $220 −$25 -11%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Feb 27 $217 −$217 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Feb 26 $863 −$863 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $253 −$253 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $389 −$389 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $372 −$372 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $354 −$354 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 04 $14,471 −$14,471 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by September 30? Sep 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Aug 20 $896 −$896 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 20 $219 −$219 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before September? Aug 20 $1,612 −$1,612 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Aug 20 $509 −$509 -100%
Will a Republican win Oregon Presidential Election? Aug 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Aug 20 $741 −$741 -100%
Will a Republican win Maine Presidential Election? Aug 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Electi Aug 20 $259 −$259 -100%
Trump in jail before election day? Aug 20 $845 −$845 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Aug 20 $390 −$390 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Aug 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Aug 20 $114 −$114 -100%
Are the New Jersey mystery drones aliens? Aug 20 $647 −$647 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $5,418 −$5,418 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 20 $2,478 −$2,478 -100%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Aug 20 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee? Aug 20 $4,242 −$4,242 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $3,876 −$3,876 -100%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Aug 20 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Will Beirut airport close by August 5? Aug 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Aug 20 $1,902 −$1,902 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Aug 20 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Aug 20 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? Aug 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran military response by Sunday? Aug 20 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Aug 20 $2,241 −$2,241 -100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Aug 20 $867 −$867 -100%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September? Aug 20 $426 −$426 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 20 $1,095 −$1,095 -100%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Aug 20 $2,998 −$2,612 -87%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Aug 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 66% −$88,080
other 16% −$21,175
world 11% −$10,864
economics 6% −$7,904
sports 1% −$800
crypto 0% +$2,140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $195 104d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $220 104d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 105d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $130 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $396 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $399 106d
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 106d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $148 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-90.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 77 -89.6% -90.6% 3% 3% -95.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.6% 3% -95.5%
10% -91.5% 3% -96.0%
15% -92.3% 3% -96.3%
20% -93.1% 3% -96.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records