Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe4f0…71cc weather 35 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$21 (+52%) realized +$26 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$27
world 15% −$6
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 29 +61.8% +46.4% 28% 28% +41.4%
≤90d 29 +61.8% +46.4% 28% 28% +41.4%
all 29 +61.8% +46.4% 28% 28% +41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.4% 28% +41.4%
10% +32.4% 28% +27.9%
15% +19.6% 28% +15.5%
20% +7.9% 28% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$6 +585%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $2 +$4 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$28 +2672%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $1.29 (match) · 48 history records