Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe4ea…3777 crypto 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$353 (-5%) realized −$350 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%404W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$510
sports 2% −$14
world 1% +$61
politics 0% −$1
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.1% -26.8% 40% 40% +32.0%
≤30d 220 -8.2% -17.0% 60% 58% -13.2%
≤90d 667 -8.9% -17.6% 61% 53% -15.2%
all 667 -8.9% -17.6% 61% 53% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 53% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 18% -23.3%
15% -32.7% 13% -30.7%
20% -39.3% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$350
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses404 / 263
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)667 / 672
History coverage65d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 667 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $71 +$64 +89%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $17 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 27 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 27 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 27 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 26 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 26 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 26 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 24 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 24 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 24 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 23 $4 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 9m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $135 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $1 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $2 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $7 26h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $10 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 46h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 46h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $20 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $19 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.82 · official $28.82 (match) · 1714 history records