Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4e9…31e9 world 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$4
other 12% −$1
finance 3% $0
politics 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 14 -8.2% -16.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -8.2% -16.9% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 25 -7.1% -16.0% 40% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -24.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage458d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $26 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -77%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $10 $0 +2%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $26 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $15 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $20 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $20 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records