Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4e7…5c72 politics 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%5W / 59L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$10
other 24% −$1
sports 14% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 57% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 25 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 64 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage202d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $298 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $598 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $297 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $599 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $593 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $298 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $299 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $301 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $301 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 08 $301 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $301 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Apr 02 $302 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $302 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $302 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $303 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 22 $303 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $594 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $304 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $592 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $304 $0 +0%
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? Mar 12 $304 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $304 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $304 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $304 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $304 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $293 −$2 -1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $295 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $291 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $293 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jan 05 $295 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $296 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $295 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $291 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $297 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $299 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $298 13h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $298 22h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $298 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $298 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $298 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $297 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $297 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $297 18d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $297 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $298 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $298 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $298 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $298 34d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $298 34d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $299 34d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $299 36d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 37d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $299 39d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 40d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $277 40d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $299 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $299 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 47d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $299 47d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $300 64d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $300 65d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $300 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 253 history records