Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4e6…4bd4 other 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22,736 (+7%) realized +$26,060 · open −$3,324
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%156W / 66L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,489per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$11,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4,122
14 days+$3,468
30 days+$9,867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$11,439
world 24% −$1,457
tech 10% +$2,806
finance 8% +$2,766
crypto 3% +$3,138
sports 3% −$738
politics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 88% 50% -2.9%
≤30d 46 +0.3% -9.2% 74% 26% -3.0%
≤90d 112 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 24% -4.8%
all 222 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 27% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 27% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 15% -12.7%
15% -28.2% 8% -21.1%
20% -35.3% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,281) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$132 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$11,518
Realized+$26,060
Unrealized−$3,324
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses156 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage208d
Avg bet$1,489
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $14,833 $11,511 −$3,322 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $34,032 +$1,557 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $405 +$116 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $14,516 +$1,565 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5,607 +$837 +15%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,180 +$25 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $320 +$23 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $2,719 +$61 +2%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $753 −$459 -61%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $853 +$41 +5%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $972 −$547 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $150 −$8 -6%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $325 −$41 -12%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $500 +$310 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 04 $8,500 +$260 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $1,320 +$155 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 +$6 +165%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 03 $1,040 +$60 +6%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $1,249 +$5 +0%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $2,932 +$62 +2%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Belgium? Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4,172 +$3,142 +75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 2? Jun 02 $437 −$7 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,421 +$36 +2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $59 +$42 +71%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $297 +$3 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $102 −$14 -14%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$106 -52%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $130 −$88 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $21,058 +$333 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $3,180 +$39 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $2,601 +$109 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 28 $9,945 +$857 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 24 $2,422 +$509 +21%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $26 −$26 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $4,982 +$904 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $97 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $2,541 +$53 +2%
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? May 21 $1,281 +$54 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? May 20 $1,273 −$5 -0%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? May 20 $989 +$7 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3 +$7 +203%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +32%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $1,288 +$299 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $21 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $53 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,517.89 · official $11,517.89 (match) · 2479 history records