Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4e5…f8a0 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$734 (-35%) realized −$101 · open −$633
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$27
politics 45% −$637
other 4% −$86
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +165.9% +140.6% 75% 58% -10.2%
≤30d 14 +129.1% +107.3% 64% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 35 +33.0% +20.3% 51% 46% -16.8%
all 35 +33.0% +20.3% 51% 46% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 46% -16.8%
10% +8.8% 37% -24.7%
15% -1.7% 26% -32.0%
20% -11.4% 20% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +92% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$633
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage69d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $919 $285 −$633 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $88 +$22 +25%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $68 +$19 +28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $63 +$5 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $161 −$101 -63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $150 +$12 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$31 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 +$44 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $1 $0 +13%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna Apr 16 $13 +$3 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5 Apr 13 $17 +$13 +79%
Canucks vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Apr 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 12 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Flames vs. Kraken Apr 12 $10 −$8 -83%
Pelicans vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Apr 11 $21 +$16 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Apr 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Apr 10 $17 +$12 +73%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Apr 09 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $109 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $88 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $87 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $68 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $63 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $60 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $161 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $150 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $131 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $112 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 2d
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $685 19d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 19d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 40¢ $257 36d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 61d
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna BUY Virtus Bologna 78¢ $13 62d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? SELL Yes $0 62d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 31¢ $10 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.61 · official $285.49 (match) · 68 history records