Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4e5…fc8d other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$364 (+70%) realized +$364 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$72
politics 39% +$406
sports 17% +$34
world 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +14.6% +3.7% 57% 57% -12.4%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 50% -26.5%
≤90d 27 +8.1% -2.2% 48% 48% +62.1%
all 27 +8.1% -2.2% 48% 48% +62.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 48% +62.1%
10% -11.6% 48% +46.6%
15% -20.1% 44% +32.5%
20% -27.9% 33% +19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$13 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage65d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $152 +$453 +297%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$2 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 17d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 28d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 99¢ $115 43d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 86¢ $101 43d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 84¢ $490 43d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 SELL Yes $3 43d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 44d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes $52 46d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 86¢ $50 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 57 history records