Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4e4…89d4 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$5
other 20% $0
politics 17% −$3
sports 15% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 62 +0.7% -8.9% 26% 2% -9.7%
all 77 -1.0% -10.4% 26% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage475d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $62 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $73 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $35 −$4 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $4 +$2 +66%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $90 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $70 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $1 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $29 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $12 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $18 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records