Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe4dc…3ed3 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%69W / 15L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 84 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 84 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 8% -8.4%
all 84 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -8.4%
10% -16.5% 4% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 4% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses69 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records