Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe4d7…ae7e other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 40% +$4
other 25% $0
world 18% −$4
politics 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 3 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage95d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 58¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+16%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? No 75¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 69¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-76%)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? Mar 26 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $4 11d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 16d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 16d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $3 16d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 16d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $14 16d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 18d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 18d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 49d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $6 49d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 49d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 51d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $4 53d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 53d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 53d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 46¢ $4 53d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 53d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $12 61d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 61d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $8 61d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $9 63d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 63d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 48¢ $4 63d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 63d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 65d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $3 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.86 · official $68.86 (match) · 51 history records