Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4d5…bc60 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-12%) realized −$29 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$37
other 38% −$1
crypto 14% −$6
world 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 12 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 33% -24.3%
≤90d 18 -37.9% -43.8% 33% 33% -22.3%
all 23 -37.1% -43.1% 30% 30% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 30% -25.5%
10% -48.5% 30% -32.6%
15% -53.5% 30% -39.1%
20% -58.1% 30% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage101d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 48¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 09 $9 −$4 -42%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $3 +$5 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $17 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $15 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay $0 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 39¢ $4 5d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 44¢ $10 62d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 63d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 21¢ $5 63d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 69d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 69d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 90d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 99d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Charles Oliveira 100¢ $8 100d
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.20 · official $19.20 (match) · 48 history records