Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4d4…9c83 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$25 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day73.2pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$5
other 5% −$70
crypto 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +11.1% +0.6% 53% 51% -11.2%
≤30d 55 +11.1% +0.6% 53% 51% -11.2%
≤90d 55 +11.1% +0.6% 53% 51% -11.2%
all 55 +11.1% +0.6% 53% 51% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 51% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 47% -19.7%
15% -17.9% 38% -27.5%
20% -25.9% 33% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day73.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 56¢ 47¢ $56 $47 −$9 (-16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 42¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $297 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $140 +$28 +20%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $121 +$99 +81%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $85 −$8 -10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $23 −$16 -72%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $65 −$38 -58%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $12 −$8 -66%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $26 +$21 +79%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $60 +$19 +32%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $13 +$20 +151%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $24 +$22 +90%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $27 +$13 +50%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $197 +$113 +58%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $66 +$18 +27%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$13 -51%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$3 -12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $0 +$1 +982%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 +$11 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $55 +$28 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $21 +$9 +40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $110 −$15 -13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $110 +$48 +44%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $13 +$7 +54%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $16 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $25 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $53 11h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 1¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 9¢ $45 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $11 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $38 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 15¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $29 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $240 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 12¢ $49 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.20 · official $47.85 (match) · 286 history records