Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4d2…ff97
weather · 144 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$93 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$93 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 73
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)136 / 144
History coverage235d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 7 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$34
14 days+$69
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 76¢ 78¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Team Falcons 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$7 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$29 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$13 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$5 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 04 $7 +$27 +375%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 33% −$46
crypto 25% +$69
other 23% +$7
sports 19% +$60
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $6 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 75¢ $8 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $2 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $2 4h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $9 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 65¢ $7 9h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 85¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $8 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 21¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -36.3% -42.4% 43% 33% +8.0%
≤30d 128 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 39% -9.8%
≤90d 128 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 39% -9.8%
all 136 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 39% -6.6%
10% -19.2% 36% -15.6%
15% -27.0% 34% -23.7%
20% -34.2% 28% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.64 · official $91.64 · 442 history records