Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe4d0…af14 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$61 (+12%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$34
sports 5% +$3
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +57.1% +42.2% 64% 52% -15.1%
≤30d 39 +36.1% +23.1% 56% 46% -16.8%
≤90d 39 +36.1% +23.1% 56% 46% -16.8%
all 39 +36.1% +23.1% 56% 46% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 46% -16.8%
10% +11.3% 31% -24.7%
15% +0.6% 26% -32.0%
20% -9.3% 21% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$7 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$5 +36%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $29 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records