Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe4d0…8814 crypto 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,523 (-2%) realized −$3,523 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%230W / 193L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1,774est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$5,152
crypto 28% −$974
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -22.0% -29.4% 46% 46% -24.7%
≤30d 221 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 423 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 53% -12.1%
all 423 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 53% -12.1%
10% -22.8% 51% -20.5%
15% -30.3% 43% -28.2%
20% -37.1% 32% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$606) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$351 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,523
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses230 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,774
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage78d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$30 +103%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $762 −$750 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $607 +$106 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,002 −$343 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $504 +$142 +28%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1,459 +$423 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,957 +$418 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $329 −$321 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $330 −$322 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $729 −$729 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $514 +$167 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $329 +$337 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $1,952 −$1,900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $587 −$570 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $493 +$401 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $722 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $356 +$239 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $208 −$200 -96%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,219 +$1,567 +71%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,015 −$698 -69%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,443 −$540 -22%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,008 −$693 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $521 +$686 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $522 +$400 +77%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,012 +$687 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $521 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $898 +$734 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,014 +$402 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $480 −$460 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $497 +$187 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $341 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$214 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $615 +$186 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $60 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 57¢ $60 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 1h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $762 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $713 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $607 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $659 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,000 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 6d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 97¢ $646 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 75¢ $504 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,458 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,458 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $915 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $916 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,040 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $154 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $329 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $330 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $729 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $680 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $514 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 843 history records