Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4cf…c9ea other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$15
other 27% −$17
sports 23% −$9
crypto 6% −$6
world 6% −$2
culture 4% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 121
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage103d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $203 −$3 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $403 +$1 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $178 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $229 +$1 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $178 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $66 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $24 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $390 −$2 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $36 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 6h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $42 7h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $42 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 23h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $23 24h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $23 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 32h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 36h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 37h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 45h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $63 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $64 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $63 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $64 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $25 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.56 · official $52.56 (match) · 514 history records