trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 11% | 0% | -14.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 11% | 0% | -14.9% |
| all | 24 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 42% | 4% | -15.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.4% | 4% | -15.3% |
| 10% | -28.9% | 0% | -23.4% |
| 15% | -35.8% | 0% | -30.8% |
| 20% | -42.1% | 0% | -37.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 07 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $41 | −$17 | -42% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $46 | −$1 | -1% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Dec 15 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 14 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $1 | −$1 | -47% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 27 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 20 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $15 | −$7 | -48% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $16 | −$1 | -5% |
| China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? | Mar 13 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 13 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |