Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4cc…6135 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$650 (-10%) realized −$636 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$564
sports 8% −$19
politics 2% −$45
world 0% −$13
economics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.7% -16.5% 31% 31% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -18.0% -25.8% 28% 28% -13.3%
≤90d 37 -48.1% -53.0% 19% 16% -52.8%
all 72 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -18.9%
10% -27.7% 32% -26.7%
15% -34.7% 26% -33.8%
20% -41.1% 22% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$49 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$636
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage167d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $72 $89 +$16 (+22%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $97 $52 −$45 (-46%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+171%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $17 +$83 +474%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $67 −$66 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$69 +134%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$37 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$67 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April? Apr 13 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April? Apr 13 $53 −$51 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April? Apr 08 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in April? Apr 02 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April? Mar 31 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 31 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Mar 31 $217 −$208 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $119 −$36 -30%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $43 −$13 -30%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $332 −$241 -72%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 23 $34 −$29 -84%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 23 $61 −$56 -92%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 10? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,350-$5,475 in February? Mar 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 11? Mar 23 $38 −$35 -92%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 5? Mar 23 $149 +$5 +3%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 21 $214 +$76 +36%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $116 +$60 +52%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -87%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $221 +$27 +12%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $17 +$32 +186%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $87 +$20 +22%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 13 $52 +$35 +67%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 12 $69 +$16 +22%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 10 $59 +$21 +35%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $7 +$6 +92%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 07 $27 −$5 -17%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 05 $12 +$13 +104%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $40 −$35 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 21h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $91 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 45h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 18d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 18d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 21d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 68d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.87 · official $268.87 (match) · 561 history records