Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe4cb…f380 crypto 984 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$601 (-6%) realized −$602 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%518W / 463L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day91.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$335
14 days−$579
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$325
sports 31% −$154
other 3% −$17
world 2% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 43% -14.2%
≤30d 981 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 42% -15.3%
≤90d 981 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 42% -15.3%
all 981 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 42% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 34% -23.4%
15% -31.0% 28% -30.8%
20% -37.8% 21% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$602
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses518 / 463
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)981 / 984
History coverage17d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day91.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 981 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 400 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $501 +$51 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 −$26 -52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$25 +25%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $106 +$6 +6%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +44%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$7 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $552 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 45¢ $24 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $301 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 98¢ $126 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $61 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 70¢ $50 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $10 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $112 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 96¢ $14 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 96¢ $24 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 96¢ $24 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 96¢ $24 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $10 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.61 · official $40.61 (match) · 2104 history records