Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe4c7…647a crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$95 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate43%79W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day91.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$92
sports 1% −$9
culture 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 21% -12.3%
≤30d 185 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 21% -12.5%
≤90d 185 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 21% -12.5%
all 185 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 21% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 21% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 3% -20.8%
15% -35.7% 1% -28.5%
20% -42.0% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses79 / 106
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)185 / 188
History coverage21d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day91.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 0¢ 60¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 0¢ 60¢ $0 $18 +$18 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$15 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$11 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $27 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $23 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $9 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.48 · official $61.90 · 2003 history records