Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4c6…1879 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$797 (+14%) realized +$929 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$105
14 days−$453
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$835
other 40% −$156
crypto 5% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 39% -4.2%
≤90d 24 -26.9% -33.9% 42% 42% +6.7%
all 24 -26.9% -33.9% 42% 42% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 42% +6.7%
10% -40.2% 38% -3.5%
15% -46.0% 38% -12.8%
20% -51.3% 17% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$56 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,316
Realized+$929
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions11
Markets (closed)24 / 35
History coverage50d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $218 $317 +$99 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $100 $218 +$118 (+118%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $218 $149 −$69 (-32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $200 $117 −$83 (-42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $54 −$16 (-23%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $3 −$113 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$96 +187%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $409 +$102 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,020 +$366 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $1,295 +$531 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 58¢ $81 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 12d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes $51 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 62¢ $50 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $79 15d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $51 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $51 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $119 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,316.49 · official $1,316.65 (match) · 77 history records