Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4bf…f385
weather · 1176 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,483 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,631 · open +$148
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,683
Realized−$1,631
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses920 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1156 / 1176
History coverage27d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 20 History 1156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1,145
14 days−$2,132
30 days−$1,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,061 $1,092 +$31 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $912 $930 +$18 (+2%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $704 $723 +$19 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $709 $722 +$13 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $630 $648 +$19 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 98¢ $607 $608 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $509 $520 +$11 (+2%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 97¢ 95¢ $357 $347 −$10 (-3%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 97¢ 96¢ $351 $346 −$5 (-1%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $311 $318 +$7 (+2%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $303 $311 +$8 (+3%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $280 $296 +$16 (+6%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $227 $230 +$2 (+1%)
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? No 98¢ 97¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 94¢ 99¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%? No 98¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $49 −$7 -15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $48 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $227 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $447 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $157 −$15 -10%
Will Mark Leonard advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $175 +$3 +2%
Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $622 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $92 +$4 +5%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $323 +$6 +2%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $302 +$6 +2%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $91 +$3 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $278 +$18 +6%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $93 +$12 +13%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $177 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $186 +$7 +4%
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election? Jun 08 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 08 $287 +$21 +7%
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 08 $293 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $309 +$3 +1%
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio Jun 08 $298 +$26 +9%
Will Sandro Parcaroli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 08 $309 +$26 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $399 +$8 +2%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 08 $610 +$44 +7%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $394 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $583 +$6 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $96 −$8 -8%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $276 −$5 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $469 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $275 +$2 +1%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 08 $181 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $281 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $276 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 08 $281 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $306 +$3 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $327 +$10 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,377 +$19 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $264 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Denmark 3 - 0 Ukraine? Jun 08 $269 +$14 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 24% +$232
sports 22% +$321
crypto 18% −$976
weather 17% −$1,159
politics 9% −$89
world 5% +$143
finance 3% +$83
tech 1% −$47
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 83¢ $41 41m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $47 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $2 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $48 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 2d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $142 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $4 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 89¢ $88 4d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 97¢ $91 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 95¢ $96 4d
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $93 4d
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? BUY Yes 99¢ $92 4d
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $94 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $96 4d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 95¢ $92 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $92 4d
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic SELL Yes 90¢ $87 4d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 96¢ $91 4d
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $90 4d
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic BUY Yes 93¢ $90 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 94¢ $91 4d
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $92 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 1% -11.2%
≤30d 1156 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 1156 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 3% -10.3%
all 1156 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 3% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,682.70 · official $7,682.70 (match) · 3500 history records