Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4be…95a8 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$55 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$6
crypto 27% −$478
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -15.9% -23.9% 79% 12% -21.1%
≤30d 34 -15.9% -23.9% 79% 12% -21.1%
≤90d 34 -15.9% -23.9% 79% 12% -21.1%
all 34 -15.9% -23.9% 79% 12% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 12% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 0% -28.6%
15% -37.8% 0% -35.5%
20% -43.9% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$81 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9,994
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10,000 $9,994 −$6 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $201 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $177 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $215 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $155 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $205 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $176 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $175 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,994.04 · official $9,994.04 (match) · 160 history records