Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4bd…bd20 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 35% −$3
politics 5% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -3.0% -12.2% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage458d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $38 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $24 −$2 -7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Abyss' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? May 05 $13 $0 +3%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 -15%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $39 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $16 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $22 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $41 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.91 · official $41.41 (match) · 97 history records