Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4b7…9858 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$479 (+13%) realized +$479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$496
other 34% −$16
crypto 11% $0
culture 8% −$1
politics 5% $0
world 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -11.1% -19.6% 25% 25% +8.7%
all 19 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 11% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 11% +2.4%
10% -20.3% 11% -7.4%
15% -28.0% 11% -16.3%
20% -35.0% 11% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$2 · ×81.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.23 per $1 lost it wins $25.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage132d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -96%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Apr 15 $256 +$144 +56%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $325 −$2 -1%
Ducks vs. Utah Mar 22 $289 +$354 +122%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 08 $199 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 24 $2 $0 -25%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $84 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 33d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 56d
Red Wings vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 64¢ $256 72d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $323 84d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $325 87d
Ducks vs. Utah BUY Ducks 45¢ $289 95d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 99d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $197 99d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $98 102d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 102d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $296 102d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $297 103d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $98 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $199 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $199 106d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $98 106d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 108d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 100¢ $199 108d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $199 110d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $289 111d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $289 112d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $292 117d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $292 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $1 120d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $2 122d
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY Yes 1¢ $7 126d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $295 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.81 · official $34.81 (match) · 64 history records