Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4b4…874d other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (2796 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized +$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,215per market
Trades / day2795.8pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$12
politics 40% −$1
world 8% −$1
economics 1% +$31
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2796 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.4% -9.1% 5% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 37 +0.4% -9.1% 5% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 37 +0.4% -9.1% 5% 3% -9.5%
all 37 +0.4% -9.1% 5% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2795.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$595) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
44.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×39.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,215
Trades / day2795.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $342 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,939 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $18,304 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $302 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $460 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $740 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $604 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $492 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,555 −$1 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,657 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $989 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14,250 −$8 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $186 +$31 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,944 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $595 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $312 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 7m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 10m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 11m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 11m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 11m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 12m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 13m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 14m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 15m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 16m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.93 · official $365.93 (match) · 3500 history records