Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4b2…098b other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-31%) realized −$187 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$223
other 35% +$19
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 38% -22.2%
≤30d 15 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 40% -9.2%
≤90d 34 -28.4% -35.3% 32% 32% -62.1%
all 34 -28.4% -35.3% 32% 32% -62.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 32% -62.1%
10% -41.5% 32% -65.7%
15% -47.1% 29% -69.0%
20% -52.3% 24% -72.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)34 / 59
History coverage53d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 64¢ 72¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+13%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+250%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 70¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Kane 45¢ 59¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+31%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 73¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 63¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 22¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? No 17¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 26 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $20 +$11 +55%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 19 $4 +$3 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 11 $5 +$15 +307%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 09 $8 −$8 -99%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 09 $29 −$29 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $167 −$166 -100%
Will Marwan Rahiki win by KO or TKO? May 02 $8 +$4 +45%
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO? May 02 $2 +$3 +134%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 02 $3 +$2 +67%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 02 $2 +$3 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Louie Sutherland win by KO or TKO? May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL No 11¢ $2 4h
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 32h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 32h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane BUY Kane 45¢ $5 5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $20 5d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 58¢ $10 6d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 17¢ $5 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 39¢ $3 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8d
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $1 8d
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 8d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 8d
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8d
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.97 · official $166.98 (match) · 121 history records