Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe4b1…a75e sports 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 495d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72,944 (+13%) realized +$71,368 · open +$1,576
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%91W / 162L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$2,160per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1,096est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$21,561
30 days+$15,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$31,518
other 21% +$40,617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +41.7% +28.2% 33% 33% +54.0%
≤90d 3 +41.7% +28.2% 33% 33% +54.0%
all 253 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 33% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 33% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 33% -7.5%
15% -35.6% 31% -16.4%
20% -41.9% 29% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,000) neutral
Persistence
early +41% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,802 vs −$1,139 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

495d coverage
Net worth$10,110
Realized+$71,368
Unrealized+$1,576
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses91 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,096
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage495d
Avg bet$2,160
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $8,535 $10,110 +$1,576 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $9,559 +$21,561 +226%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $2,671 −$1,641 -61%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $10,363 −$4,047 -39%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka Feb 26 $584 −$584 -100%
Bengals vs. Bills Dec 07 $1,212 −$1,212 -100%
Duke vs. Virginia Dec 07 $612 −$1 -0%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 06 $563 +$650 +116%
Ravens vs. Browns Nov 16 $847 −$847 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Nov 16 $250 +$97 +39%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $1,126 −$375 -33%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 15 $572 −$572 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? Nov 15 $1,230 +$313 +25%
Broncos vs. Eagles Nov 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Flavio Cobolli Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Arizona State vs. Utah Nov 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Jaume Munar vs Daniil Medvedev Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Nov 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-25? Nov 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Wizards vs. Bucks Nov 15 $280 −$240 -86%
Spread: Packers (-13.5) Nov 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 15 $1,635 +$3,356 +205%
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-08? Nov 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin Cilic Nov 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Flames vs. Canucks Nov 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Erste Bank Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 15 $322 −$322 -100%
Chiefs vs. Bills Nov 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5) Nov 15 $389 −$389 -100%
Lightning vs. Capitals Nov 15 $558 −$558 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Nov 15 $543 −$543 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Nov 15 $574 −$574 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nov 15 $592 −$592 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Nov 15 $661 −$661 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Nov 15 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Gabriel Diallo Nov 15 $526 −$526 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 15 $400 −$400 -100%
49ers vs. Rams Nov 15 $562 −$562 -100%
Suns vs. Jazz Nov 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Panthers vs. Sabres Nov 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? Nov 15 $568 −$568 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Nov 15 $885 −$151 -17%
Titans vs. Raiders Nov 15 $530 −$530 -100%
Chargers vs. Dolphins Nov 15 $676 −$676 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Brewers vs. Cubs Nov 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Dolphins vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5 Nov 15 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,612 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,588 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,468 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $31,120 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,681 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $520 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $7,306 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1,030 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $6,316 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $8 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1,219 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $40 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $9 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1,395 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,240 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,332 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,314 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $6,318 32d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $114 32d
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 34¢ $584 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,110.05 · official $10,110.05 (match) · 739 history records