Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe4b0…bb1d crypto 1587 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,545 (+11%) realized +$11,545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%813W / 773L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 592 +13.9% +3.0% 55% 54% +2.9%
≤90d 1586 +5.5% -4.6% 51% 50% -7.7%
all 1586 +5.5% -4.6% 51% 50% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 50% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 48% -16.5%
15% -22.0% 46% -24.6%
20% -29.7% 45% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$61 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses813 / 773
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1586 / 1587
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1586 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $149 +$34 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$48 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$26 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$51 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$48 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$46 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$29 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$106 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$46 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$82 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$64 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$24 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$98 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$65 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$80 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$70 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$46 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $49 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $49 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $49 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $49 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $49 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $50 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $50 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records