trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +211.3% | +181.6% | 100% | 100% | +45.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +39.0% | +25.7% | 73% | 45% | +4.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +34.7% | +21.9% | 75% | 44% | +11.5% |
| all | 16 | +34.7% | +21.9% | 75% | 44% | +11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +21.9% | 44% | +11.5% |
| 10% | +10.2% | 25% | +0.8% |
| 15% | -0.4% | 19% | -8.9% |
| 20% | -10.2% | 19% | -17.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 67¢ | 99¢ | $671 | $994 | +$323 (+48%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $485 | $482 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 | Under | 69¢ | 68¢ | $252 | $250 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $375 | +$91 | +24% |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 | Jun 17 | $40 | +$160 | +398% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $478 | +$69 | +14% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2? | Jun 02 | $120 | −$118 | -98% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $159 | +$141 | +89% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $616 | +$84 | +14% |
| Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c | May 29 | $26 | −$4 | -14% |
| Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma | May 29 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 24 | $550 | −$10 | -2% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | May 23 | $69 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? | May 22 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $336 | +$68 | +20% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? | May 13 | $341 | +$359 | +105% |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4? | May 04 | $3 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 04 | $391 | +$39 | +10% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15? | Apr 15 | $105 | +$6 | +5% |