Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4ad…e28f crypto 62 markets active 4d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.4% -15.3% 21% 14% -21.0%
≤30d 61 -8.1% -16.8% 26% 10% -15.5%
≤90d 61 -8.1% -16.8% 26% 10% -15.5%
all 61 -8.1% -16.8% 26% 10% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 10% -15.5%
10% -24.8% 2% -23.6%
15% -32.1% 0% -31.0%
20% -38.7% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records